Writing in the Asian Times, David P Goldman, a.k.a., Spengler, has a fascinating piece about Israel’s bright future as a Middle East hegemon. Using recent demographic data and historical and cultural insights, Spengler presents a thought-provoking case for Israel becoming a world superpower by the end of the century.Spengler says that with a total fertility rate of 3 children per woman, Israel’s total population will rise to 24 million by the end of the present century, while the populations of countries like Turkey, Iran, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the countries of Eastern Europe will shrink and age.
Population aged 15 to 24 years, Israel vs selected countries
Spengler predicts that with a total fertility rate of 3 children per woman, Israel’s total population will rise to 24 million by the end of the present century. He doesn’t seem to include new olim (immigrants), so perhaps it could be even higher. Especially if, as he alludes later on in the essay, that things in Europe aren’t going to be too rosy.He adds that although the size of land armies don’t matter as much in an era of high-tech warfare, if present trends continue, Israel will be able to field the largest land army in the Middle East.
After discussing demographics, Spengler than examines Israel’s burgeoning economy and rich cultural landscape, elements, he insists that are vital to a healthy and prosperous nation.
He says Israel is already a high-tech superpower and leads the Group of 7 industrial nations in patent applications. Israel’s venture capital industry raises more funds than any other country but the United States. In 2006, Israel had 80 active venture capital funds and over $10 billion under management, invested in over 1,000 Israeli start-ups.
Surprisingly, however, Spengler leaves out one of the best arguments in support of his thesis – Israel’s energy-rich future.I’ve posted about Israel’s massive oil and gas discoveries here and here. For some reason Spengler neglects to mention the huge Leviathan and Tamar gas fields off the coast of Haifa, or Israel’s Shefla Basin, which holds the world’s second largest shale deposits outside the United States, and from which experts say some 250 billion barrels of oil – about the same as Saudi Arabia’s proven reserves, could be extractable.
Anyway, Spengler than discusses Israel’s prowess in the arts, something he says matches its accomplishments in technology and business.
Israel Philharmonic
“…Israel has become something of a superpower in that most characteristically Western art form, classical music. In a July 21, 2010, survey of Israeli music for the webzine Tablet, I wrote, ‘Israelis take to classical music – the art form that most clearly creates a sense of the future – like no other people on earth, to the point that music has become part of Israel’s character, an embodiment of the national genius for balancing hope and fear.
“Israel has one the largest local audience for chamber music recitals of any country in the world, and its leading musicians occupy top slots around the world – for example Guy Braunstein, concertmaster (principal violin) of the Berlin Philharmonic.”
The piece then moves on to how Israel is, and will continue to be regarded with disdain by Europe. Spengler says that Europe’s hostility towards Israel is based on envy.
“… Israel’s success is a horrible reminder of European failure; its bumptious nationalism grates against Europe’s determination to forget its own ugly embrace of nationalism; and its implicitly religious raison d’etre provokes post-Christian rage. Above all, it offends Europe that Israel brims with life. Some of Europe’s great nations may not survive the present century. At constant fertility, Israel will have more citizens than any of the Eastern European countries where large numbers of Jews resided prior to the Holocaust.”
Total population, Israel vs selected Eastern European countries (constant fertility scenario)
Finally, Spengler spends the remainder of his essay examining the so-called Arab spring and its likely outcome. His spring forecast is gloomy and doomy, citing the Arab world’s dire economic problems.
It’s a very interesting piece and contains much more than I’ve discussed here. Read the whole thing.
At a time when so many writers and commentators – especially those belonging to the ever inconsolable and dreary Israeli Left – are expressing pessimism regarding Israel’s future, Spengler’s article will be a welcome blast of fresh air. Indeed, if there is a spring happening in the Middle East, it’s not an Arab spring, but an Israeli one.- Tiny Israel to become oil, gas, and solar energy Goliath
- New data: Israel may have 3rd largest deposit of oil shale in the world
- Another big energy find in Israel’s future?
- Israel on its way to joining “the energy-rich super-elite”
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